It’s the economy stupid

I can’t stand those who prey off the public using fear tactics! Also can’t stand the flip side of that same coin, “best economy EVER.”

My quest with this post: ECONOMY.

Things aren’t as great as the left say and not nearly as bad as the right say. Here are the best numbers I can find and broken down as easily as my intelligence allows!

The overly happy lovey dovey left wingers: “Unemployment rate: 4.9%” (this is the “U3” and some consider a flawed number because it does not include different employment situations). The economic theory “Phillips Curve” says that 5% unemployed is a perfect balance (if inflation stays at 2%) (if EVERYONE is employed there is no way to create new positions). So, yay U.S.A.  BUT! There are six different measurements of unemployment U-1 through U-6.

Another wakeup call: Ready for some really geeky numbers: Another calculation for consideration is the “U6”. Which is U5 (discouraged works and all other marginally attached workers) + Part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons (i.e. underemployment). The U6 number is 9.6%. This number peaked (like most horrible numbers) after the 2008 disaster at 18% and has steadily decreased year-by-year since then. – Then if we take the U6-U3, we get a measurement to see ‘how easy it is to find a job if you want one’ (lower is better). U6-U3=4.8%… looks low, BUT this is too high in my humble opinion, by about 1%. Booo.

Too see all U-1 through U-6 numbers from 2006 to 2016:http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/03/ They are VERY closely correlated. My conclusion for unemployment is, yeah, go ahead and use the typical ‘U3’ number.

Also, a recent article explains the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits is near the 43-year low of 248k. Economist say 300k is a healthy threshold for a labor market. YAY!

62% = Labor force participation rate, which is people employed or unemployed looking for better jobs. This is the lowest it’s been in 38 years. (in those 38 years it ranged from 67% to a high of 62%, in other words a 5% swing). This means 37% of the people in the work force, or 94-million people NOT looking for a job annnnd, not looking anymore. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-pticiparation-rate

GDP for the U.S. is 17.9 Trillion (hey! Almost matches our national debt!… almost) This number has followed an EXTREMLY predictable pattern starting in 1960. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US

Bottom line here: no political party, no event (other than 2008 global collapse), no tax system, has shaken this number. Even the 2008 collapse, next year, boom, it was right back on track. This number is following a 55-year trend. (Also a fun number to look at=GDP per capita… follows the same upward trend, which is a good thing). Yay! Side note, the WORLD, yes WORLD GDP is about 73 trillion (2015) so Merica = whoopin butt! In fact, the U.S. is by far the #1 leader in GDP at 17.9! all of the EU comes close to us (yes ALL of the EU) but China is #2 at 10.9. And Japan is #3 with only 4! So, YAAAAY US! (back to the GDP per capita, we are listed around 10th… DOH! China #84th and Japan #27 for what it’s worth)

Welfare; if you dig into the statistics… it doesn’t take long to see this system is extremely broken. To me personally this number is even more deceiving than the different ways we record unemployment. Percent of the US Population on welfare is around 35%! (you can make $1,000 a month and still be on welfare, so they might be working, just at very low paying jobs or part-time). 100 million recipients on Welfare?! This is an easy doom and gloom thing to yell.

According to http://www.statisticbrain.com 39 states pay more than $8/hr in welfare. And the saddest stat… 8 states pay more than the average salary of a U.S. Teacher.

Of the 100million recipients, of different kinds… the estimate is this; $1 trillion a year in welfare (fed/state/local). Of that, nearly two-thirds goes to Medicare (which provides health coverage to around 55 million people who are over age 65 or have disabilities). That’s A LOT.

My opinion rant: Welfare needs to be reformed with the goal of lifting those (who are able) out of poverty. Medicare cost needs to be addressed. Religious or not, I believe we will be judged on how we take care of those who cannot take care of themselves.

The dollar is very strong (which could be good or bad.) Good for world travelers! And cuts the price of imports, but the flip side is true. Strong dollar means our exports take a hit. So, yay, and boo.

Any week now, our national debt will hit 20 trillion. Good news… we can print more money! We literally could print 20 trillion dollars and pay everything off. The 2% inflation would change… probably to 5,000% but hey, debt solved. Sure a loaf of bread will be $300. Anyone want to buy Iraqi Dinaris or Zimbabwean dollars? So, if the current value of the dollar is strong then we must be printing less money.

Historic spikes in the national debt are during war times. Civil War, WWI, WWII and our current war on terror. *Tie it into politics and it’s easy to say “Obama added 10trillion dollars!” (because, … it’s true) and “Bush added 5trillion” truth is they both doubled it while in office. Right-wingers love Reganomics and Left-wingers love the Clinton years. Regardless of which side of the isle, Regan stabilized the deficit (and got screwed due to the central bank jacking up interest rates to nearly 20%) and Clinton eliminated it (having a surplus in the budget (and to be fair, had a republican house/senate during this time)). I cannot stand the current political view of EITHER/OR for reducing spending or raising taxes. It needs to be a reformed by closing insanely large loop holes and include both tax and spending changes.

So, things aren’t as bad as fear-mongers want you to believe and we certainly have a lot of work to do before saying, ‘4.9% unemployment, problem solved!”

 

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